Trading GBP/TRY

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Tobias Robinson

Tobias is a UK director and partner at Investing.co.uk. He provides commentary on the financial markets in the UK and supports the testing team with first-hand observations from over two decades of active trading.

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William Berg

William is an experienced investment writer with a history in forex trading software localization and IPO consultancy. He contributes as an author and fact-checker for established financial websites.

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The exotic pair of GBP/TRY is made up of the United Kingdom’s official currency, pound sterling, and Turkey’s official currency, the lira. With the GBP being a major world currency and the TRY being an exotic currency, it offers volatility but less liquid conditions. This review breaks down the history of GBP/TRY, why to trade it and how to trade it, live charts, exchanges, news and more.

GBP/TRY Chart

Why Day Trade GBP/TRY?

• Volatility – The GBP/TRY attracts investors from around the world. With wide spreads in slow periods and narrow spreads during busy periods, it allows for opportunities to profit off significant shifts in the pair’s value. Further, political uncertainty can also widely affect both the pound and lira.
• Range of trading vehicles – The forex market sees high and extensive volume, so trading GBP/TRY can be done through many vehicles, such as options, ETFs and futures.
• Diversification – An advantage of trading an exotic pair (i.e. without USD), allows investors to diversify and utilise distinct strategies to create profit.
• Resources – With the tools available nowadays, creating forecasts and predictions on GBP/TRY doesn’t have to be so hard. Conduct technical analysis with access to live candlestick charts, real-time price movement, historical graphs and the best exchange rates. Many websites also give you access to investing forums with trader sentiment and market outlooks.

Risks Of Trading GBP/TRY

• Lack of Information – As the Turkish lira is not a major currency, there is less technical information available, which can make the GBP/TRY challenging to forecast.
• Wider spreads – GBP/TRY has less liquidity compared to major forex pairs like GBP/USD. Liquidity creates buying power, and its low levels can mean that it’s more costly to trade.
• Volatility –  Shifts in the FX market can be unpredictable, making trading difficult for beginners. Thus, technical knowledge, such as support/resistance levels and pivot points are a good source to achieve success when trading volatile pairs.

Influences On GBP/TRY Movement

Central Bank Monetary Policies

Financial institutions can devalue or inflate their respective currencies, which can affect exchange rates. The Bank of England makes important decisions on GBP interest rates. Likewise, major decisions from The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey affect the future performance of TRY.

Politics

Political uncertainty or stability can widely affect investor sentiment. For example, Brexit threw the British economy into a state of flux and ushered an era of uncertainty. On the other hand, geopolitical issues due to the current situation in Syria have impacted the Turkish economy.

Economic Conditions

Inflation and the GDP of a country can affect the average exchange rate. This is important because when economic growth is greater in one country it will strengthen against the other currency, and vice versa.

Balance of Trade

A country’s current account depends on the trade between the country and its trading partners. A current account deficit occurs if its spending more on foreign goods than it’s bringing in. For example, the UK current account deficit hit £97.9 billion in 2014 (5.5% of GDP), which presented a risk in the market’s perception of the UK. On the other hand, international trade is a big aspect in Turkey’s economic activity, so a large current account deficit would likely turn investors away.

GBP/TRY Currency Correlations

The GBP/TRY does not have a US dollar component, which makes it a cross. Cross currency pairs often move differently to majors. However, to some extent, they are still dependent on its movement. For example, the GBP/TRY can move in relation to GBP/USD and USD/TRY pairs. Pairs can either move with each other or in the opposite direction, which affects its correlation coefficient.

• Positive correlation – This is when pairs move in the same direction as each other. For example, popular pairs, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD are all positively correlated. This is because the US dollar is the counter currency and any change in the US dollar will impact these pairs.
• Negative correlation – This occurs when pairs move in the opposite direction. Popular pairs include USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD. The base currency is the US dollar.

Application

A GBP/TRY trader can use this information to better understand the consequences of movement in certain pairs. Although it is important to note that correlations don’t remain stable. Economic factors and market speculation can create shifts in currency correlations.

GBP/TRY Day Trading Strategy

Timing

Successful GBP/TRY day trading rests on timing. While trading GBP/TRY seems hard, it typically involves trading during the highest levels of volume and volatility to generate profits above the cost of spreads and commissions. In other words, you should be trading during the ideal window.

While the forex market is open 24/5, it does not mean each of those hours is worth trading. So when is the ideal window? An hourly volatility chart of GBP/TRY will show that there is increased volume from 6am to 4pm GMT. After that, movement from each hour tapers off, which will likely have fewer big price moves to participate in.

Another thing to note is that the majority of UK monthly economic data news comes out between 7am to 9:30am GMT, which will likely cause higher volumes in the GBP/TRY pair. So, 30 to 60 mins before releases or 1 to 3 hours after releases are good times to trade as news can impact the pair’s value.

Strategy Tips

There is no perfect day trading strategy for GBP/TRY as exchange rates are affected by a range of factors, as covered above. There are many forex strategies to learn online. GBP/TRY live charts that span from 1 minute to 10 years and technical analysis are useful for creating forecasts or identifying trends.

Different strategies work for different people. Some may prefer pivot points, swap points and forward curves. However, it is important to do your own due diligence and research.

News

The latest market news and outlook can inform GBP/TRY trading strategies. This is because the pound and lira can shift in response to major news releases. Some news resources offer FX forecasts, spot rates, pre-market sentiments, historical data and the best GBP to TRY exchange rates. Here are some popular sources to consider:

• XE, Coinmill and Post Office provide free real-time currency exchange rates and converters i.e. 1 GBP in TRY
• Bloomberg’s FX Centre is where you’ll find markets news, data, analysis and more
• DailyFX offers charts and covers financial market news for forex and other assets
• Walletinvestor offers free forecasts for many forex pairs including GBP/TRY

History Of GBP/TRY

Before you start investing in the GBP/TRY, it’s useful to understand significant historical dates and its origins.

Early GBP & TRY

The British pound dates back to the Anglo-Saxon period in 775 AD, where silver coins, known as ‘sterlings’ circulated as legal tender. Having been around for 1,200 years, it is considered the oldest currency in the world. After a period of a specie-based monetary system dominated until the mid-17th century, the Bank of England was created in 1694, which was the first central bank in history.

It was around the 1700s when the UK started defining the pound’s value in terms of gold instead of silver. But eventually, it abandoned gold-backed money in 1931. After WWII, the UK joined a group of allied nations in signing the Bretton Woods Accords in 1944, where USD and GBP were designated as the global reserve currencies. This was when GBP was fixed to the US dollar. The Bretton Woods monetary system stayed in effect until 1971. However, since 1992, the GBP has existed as a free-floating currency.

On the other hand, the Turkish lira was initially adopted as the official currency by the Ottoman Empire in the mid-1800s. The Ottoman lira were gold coins used as currency while other coins that were lesser in value were also in circulation. These were called ‘kurus’ and ‘para’. In 1870, the first versions of Turkish lira banknotes were being printed and came into circulation.

The lira has had a volatile past and experienced devaluations and reconstructions, such as the replacement of the Ottoman lira in 1923 by the ‘First Turkish Lira’. This replaced smaller denominations of coinage with a standardised decimal system of currency. This shifted the Turkish currency from being largely specie-based into a modern form of currency. The First Turkish lira remained the official currency until 2005.

Recent GBP/TRY

Turkey faced constant inflation throughout the 20th century and in an attempt to achieve stability, they periodically pegged the currency to many globally prominent currencies. After 2005, the second Turkish lira was created, which is currently used in Turkey. For context, the exchange rate of 1 million First Turkish lira is 1 new TRY. Since then, it has led to a more stabilised rate of exchange.

A recent key event for Britain was the Brexit vote in 2016, which threw the British economy into a state of uncertainty. After the vote, the pound sterling saw its lowest levels since 1985 falling over 10% overnight and hitting $1.3236. Until this day, the referendum has had a lasting impact due to concerns over a successful Brexit outcome. For example, it has led to reduced trade with the EU, which was the biggest market of trade for the UK. This implied a reduced demand for its currency and a lower value for the pound.

In an attempt to restore stability and confidence in the economy, the Bank of England implemented a 10 year plan of quantitative easing, with near-zero interest rates and aggressive bond-buying. Despite this, the GBP has struggled to regain its pre-2008 level. Between 2008 and 2019, the GBP has fallen by more than 40% against USD.

Role Of GBP

When investing in the GBP/TRY pair, you should consider the role these two currencies play. This knowledge can give you a stronger position to make predictions about the market.

The UK’s economy is sixth in the world, with London being home to nearly 30% of daily forex exchange transactions. The British economy is primarily service-oriented, which is followed by manufacturing and agriculture sectors. Banking and insurance are key contributors to the UK’s GDP. Exports play a key role in the economy and the UK stands as the 10th largest exporter of goods and services abroad. Main exports include manufactured goods, fuel, chemicals and food. The main destinations being the US, Germany and France.

The British Pound is the world’s fifth most widely held reserve currency. In the forex market, the GBP currency accounts for around 13% of daily forex trading volume. Other commonly traded pairs include GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.

Britain has had a long history of global economic leadership and a strong currency. However, key political events, such as Brexit, have undermined the previous strong position of the pound. With that said, the volatility this brings provides day traders and short-term traders with good investing opportunities.

Role Of TRY

The Turkish economy is considered an emerging market economy due to its new industrialisation era. Turkey’s geographic location has also been key in its access to foreign trade as it falls on the Silk Road. Turkey has the 13th largest economy for global productions, which include textiles, automobiles, electronics and cement. However, Turkey is said to have a service-based economy as 50% of its workforce comes from service industries. Furthermore, the services sector makes up 70% of the total GDP, which is followed by industrial output and agriculture.

International trade is also a big aspect of economic activity for Turkey, with main trading partners including countries in the EU, followed by Russia and the United States. There is also a customs union being arranged with the EU to increase industrial production for exports.

Final Word On Trading GBP/TRY

As an exotic pair, the GBP/TRY offers great opportunities for diversification in a trading portfolio. It also promises volatility, attracting investors from all over the world. With all the tools at your disposal, it’s important to conduct technical analysis, make use of real-time exchange rates, historical graphs and more.

Whatever investing strategy you choose, maintaining risk management is important when trading with leverage. Furthermore, trading during the ideal investing window is key. It is also worth considering trading with a trusted OTC broker.

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