News Breakout Trading Strategy

News Breakout Strategy

Whenever a major news release is expected to hit the forex markets, the currency asset tightens up as traders stay more on the sidelines in order to examine the news release for clues as to what the market bias for the affected currency asset would be. On the charts, this shows up as a range-bound market condition.

The moment the news is released and the numbers either surprise the market pleasantly or in a nasty fashion, we will see a massive burst in price movement upwards, or a massive drop in the price action of the asset. The more pleasant or disappointing the news is, the larger the scale of the price movement.

The news breakout strategy aims to capture these market movements. The events that play out before and after the news release can be likened to the calm before a major storm. The trader must be able to use his trend line tool or price channel tool to capture the period of quiet, so he can profit from the major storm to follow. The essence of the news breakout trade is to catch the large market moves as they occur following a market surprise to the upside or downside.

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Trade Setup

The trader must use horizontal trend lines to define the limits of market consolidation. This can be done using the price channel tool or by using the trend line tool. After tracing, adjust the trend lines to make sure that both the upper and lower trend lines touch at least three points where the price action makes highs and lows.

The next step is to place 2 pending orders on both sides of the channel so as to catch the breakout in whatever direction it may occur. If you use a platform with an Order Cancels the-Other (OCO) order type, this is where to apply such a pending order. Otherwise, simply setup a Buy Stop about 20 pips above the upper trend line, with a stop loss set to about 10 pips below the lower limit line, and a Sell Stop order about 20 pips below the lower trend line, with a stop loss of 10 pips above the upper trend line.

Once a breakout occurs, delete the other trade and follow the active one. If you have used an OCO order type, this will be done for you automatically.

This strategy is not without risks. The worst case scenario occurs when choppy prices cause both orders to become activated one after the other, thus putting two contrary positions in the market. If the trader is unlucky, both trades will have their stops triggered. To guard against this, always use an OCO order type wherever you can so you do not get into this situation with the potential of suffering a double loss if both stops are triggered.

In addition, the trader should ensure that limit lines are not drawn too early or drawn at a wide distance from the market prices. The best time to draw the limit lines is about 2 minutes before the news release. This ensures that the period of pre-news choppiness is handled without issues.

The first example is taken from a one hour chart of the USDJPY. This is a very good currency to trade the news, especially when such news is related to consumer data in the US market (retail sales, employment, etc). Here the market was range bound for about four hours prior to news release. Eventually, the news caused an upside break which triggered the Buy Stop order.

As a rule, if the breakout candle closes beyond the corresponding limit line in the direction of the breakout, that move is not likely to breakdown.

It is best to use the news breakout strategy for trade outcomes that are predictable, or on currency pairs that have a predictable response to a selected news release. Some currencies have a habit of nasty retracements after seemingly behaving according to plan. Only experience will tell a trader which to follow and which to avoid. One way of studying this is to look at historical charts to see how certain currencies reacted to news releases that were bullish, bearish or neutral.

As with all strategies, the news breakout strategy must be thoroughly tested on demo in order to perfect the strategy, and it is also wise to get a no-deposit forex account so as to trade this strategy using live market conditions. This will enable the trader to gain confidence in using the strategy, practice money management when using this strategy, and perfect use of the strategy in a situation of trading with real money.