New Reports Suggest £70bn Brexit Bill By 2029
A new report released in early November has estimated that the Brexit deal proposed by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson could see the United Kingdom worse off to the tune of £70bn by the year 2029.
It also concluded the economy could shrink significantly and the average GDP decrease by around 3.5% over the next decade. The research, conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research concluded that the country would be worse off if we left the EU under the Johnson deal, and is one of the first pieces of serious research undertaken to predict the economic effects of Brexit.
The report ultimately concluded that the UK’s GDP would take a serious hit if we left under the Johnson deal – and the economy would continue to shrink, potentially leading to an increased devaluing of the pound.
Though the report did agree that Johnson’s new deal removed a degree of uncertainty from the exit proceedings, it argued that the prospect of a good trading relationship between the UK and EU could diminish significantly.
Trade is a key component of the report – it suggests that new barriers and regulations would hurt trade between the countries and whilst it did not correlate the two, the economy would suffer significantly if trade with our major partners became a casualty of the UK’s leaving of the EU.
These new figures are just the next nail in the coffin for Johnson’s Brexit deal, which appears to be dead on arrival. Whilst key figures like Mark Carney, the current head of the Bank of England, publicly praised the new deal for its commitment to removing uncertainty in the leaving process, there is mounting evidence from both independent researchers like NIESR and the major political parties that the deal is worse than the one Theresa May negotiated last year.
The report comes after MPs voted almost 438 to 20 to call a General Election this December. The Prime Minister’s most recent deal was also voted down recently, prompting renewed calls for an election before Christmas. All the major parties are now gearing up to fight election campaigns that will be dominated by the prospect of Brexit – and its new 31st January 2020 deadline.